The term ‘peak oil’ is not well known and is often misinterpreted to refer to the imminent demise of our oil supply. This is in fact not the case. Peak oil theory warns us that the cheap, easy-to-get-at oil is coming to an end and that what is left is of lower quality and more difficult to extract. This means that production costs will start to increase, which will increase the price of fuel at the pump, this in turn will also increase transportation costs, effecting the price of everything we buy. The increase in the cost of some goods and services will become too expensive for most people to afford.

The reality of climate change is making people more aware of the vital need to address carbon emissions. In essence, there is a range of gasses in the atmosphere which we call greenhouse gasses because they trap some of the heat radiated outwards from the earth, regulating the earth’s atmosphere to within a liveable range of average temperatures (around 15 degrees C). Our problem is that we are producing too much of these greenhouse gasses and the excess gasses are trapping too much heat which is causing the planet to warm up.

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.” – Margaret Mead

The concept of a warming planet may sound like an attractive proposition for some of us but, for most of the species on the planet, this warming, and specifically the speed of the increase in temperature, is a problem. It is causing weather patterns to change, producing extreme weather conditions globally and changes in local climatic conditions. This directly affects plants and they stop growing so well. For example the wine industry in the Western Cape is already feeling the strain of reduced yields because our weather patterns have changed sufficiently already, affecting the health and wellbeing of the vines.

Changing weather is only one of the problems we are facing. Rising sea levels, increased incidences of diseases such as malaria, typhoid and cholera are others and there are more, with much more far reaching consequences than I have space to address here. The upshot is that life will soon be quite different for many of us, more so for the rural communities which depend on agriculture and even more so for the indigenous populations across the globe who already live very precarious existences on the very edge of viability. Many of these communities face the very real possibility of not being able to make the adaptations necessary, or quickly enough, to survive.

There is not much we can do about water vapour, it’s not increasing in volume and it only stays in the atmosphere for a few hours, maybe as long as a day. Carbon dioxide is the most common of the rest and, apart from water vapour, has the biggest effect on our climate. It is followed by methane and the other gasses. Carbon Dioxide hangs around for hundreds of years. Mostly it is a result of burning coal and other fossil fuels such as petrol, diesel and gas. In South Africa most of our greenhouse gas emissions come from our coal fired power stations.

The problem is that even if we were able to stop all greenhouse gas emissions right now, the gasses already in the atmosphere will continue to cause the temperature to increase, and at current rates we are likely to see a temperature of about 2 degrees higher than the “norm” by the middle of this century. This doesn’t sound like much, but the scientists tell us it will cause many profound changes to plant and animal habitats which will naturally have a knock-on effect in the way in which we all live.

The Transition Town movement acknowledges the need to create localised communities which are as self-reliant as possible, in order to be independent of supplies of essential resources, like food and energy, from outside the community. They call these communities resilient because they are able to withstand shocks from outside the community. The transition from the ‘business as usual’ scenario to resilient self-reliance is what the Transition Towns movement is all about.

We will need to become educated in matters such as renewable energy and rainwater harvesting, permaculture and animal husbandry and re-learn many other skills from the pre-industrial era to enable us to function without as much liquid fuel as we have become used to. We will need to learn to be more creative and less consumptive, living in closed loop communities where nothing is wasted. We demonstrated phenomenal levels of ingenuity and intelligence as we raced up the energy curve over the last 150 years and there’s no reason why we can’t use those qualities, and more, as we negotiate our way down from the peak of the energy mountain

By actively participating in a Transition Town we can create a resource to enable us to handle these challenges. If we plan and act now, and use our creativity, this co-operative effort could unleash the genius within our local communities. We can then build a future that could be far more fulfilling and enriching, more connected and gentle on the earth than the lifestyles we have today. There are over 100 registered Towns and Communities already in transition all over the globe with a further 600 plus in the process of registration.

Visit the Transition Towns website www.transitiontowns.org to see the full list and to find out how you and your community can begin the journey to resilience and self-reliance. Transition South Africa: www.transitiontowns-africa.org

Main causes of greenhouse gas emissions:
1) Water vapour, which is water at the stage before it condenses and clouds are formed
2) Carbon dioxide
3) Methane
4) Nitrous oxide